The 2026 World Cup, priced.
Our AI model compares Polymarket and Kalshi prices with its own read of each World Cup market. Every market gets one verdict: Pick, Pass, or Avoid. We show the price, the edge, and the reasoning. We don't tip.
Vol. 1 · World Cup 2026 · Pre Tournament
France vs Senegal
Editor's pickPolymarket is pricing France lower than our model. Our model has France at 56% to win the market has them at 52%. That gap is the edge.
Where today's prices look wrong
Editor's pickEight fixtures across three groups - three picks, four passes, one rare two-way avoid. France v Mexico is the headline read.
France vs Mexico
Editor's pickPolymarket is pricing France lower than our model. Our model has France at 56% to win; the market has them at 52%. That gap is the edge.
Three reads on who lifts the trophy.
Editor's pickWhere the model and the market disagree most. France and Argentina look underpriced; Brazil is the favorite priced thin.